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Summer of Math Exposition

Interactive introduction to prediction

Audience: high-schoolundergraduate

Tags: machine-learninginteractivemlprediction

Hi all, I've written an interactive blog post with a basic introduction to prediction in Machine Learning. This is a topic that I covered in depth somewhat-recently in my masters degree and I feel like the textbooks didn't work very hard to provide the "click" moment. After the click came, all of the maths made much more sense. I think that videos and interactive figures are a great way of bringing across this intuition. I'm really trying to reinforce the flexibility. You don't have to use one of the standard models, like neural networks, gradient boosting, linear models etc. It is possible to make up your own model that fits your problem and then figure out how to train/optimise it. The models that we have exist for a reason. They're good all-rounders. We know how to optimise them. But often, especially when you don't have much data, making something bespoke is the way to go. I've also tried to emulate Grant's approach to teaching, where the learner should feel like they've discovered something themselves along the way. I want to introduce the problem of prediction as something you *could* do by hand, but that it's better and easier to pass it over to an algorithm. I've also tried to keep the formal and informal parts separate. There's more background in the footnotes for those that would like to have a more structured description of the ideas. I'm not a teacher, so one of the hardest parts was imagining my target audience and what they might struggle with. I believe that this might be useful for advanced high school students and early undergrads. Any feedback on anything that is too easy or too hard given this audience would be much appreciated! Thanks to you all for your part in making maths a little more beautiful and intuitive! Cheers, Jason



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6.3 Overall score*
25 Rank
10 Votes
7 Comments

Comments

5.7

I like the interactiveness

5.1

I would say the writing could be condensed. The interactive visuals are great, sometimes the explanations felt a little convoluted if entertaining. Not too bad stuff.

3.9

this blogpost would really benefit from having some images instead of a big body of text. it’s not memorable as-is.

6.9

Interesting and relevant topic with very nice graphics. Story element was fun and explanations were good.

5.8

The introduction of the problem could be better to rephrase to something more intuitive rather than total sales and temperature and having 4 datasets is slightly confusing. What do these 4 datasets mean here?

Interactive elements are pretty good and the explanations are good, and I think with a better overall story of the problem around it, this can help to rephrase why the object of prediction is important. For example, why is it not a good idea to make it overfit, because one could be tempted to do that because we are still losing money overall. Connecting the idea of optimization is also not that obvious why it’s clear we can’t just choose a parameter correctly the first time around to the lowest loss here.

I like the whimsical theme, and maybe we can refine it to be still be whimsical, but still tied to something we can visualize in real life.

6.5

The interactive diagrams were so good!

9
  1. Really humorous, full rating for that
  2. Really great way of bringing in the concepts
  3. Enjoyed going through the whole blog