3blue1brownThe Graduate Stats Problem I Solved With a Rectangle Sketch
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Tags: statisticsbayes
A Bayes’ theorem question stumped me in grad stats. Not the algebra. I just couldn’t tell which number went where and how they related to each other.
So I drew a rectangle. The whole theorem turns out to be one square, cut twice, where the probabilities are the areas. These are the five steps you can do in an exam margin, to draw a rectangle and answer the trickiest Bayes word problems. I also made this sketch into an interactive calculator you can use with homework or to help you understand those problems.
Don’t memorize a formula - draw a picture (or use my handy interactive calculator).
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Comments
Great well worded piece that I think does a good job at not just teaching the solution method but how to think about it on a more meta level. The way you teach this also suggests how to process and think about solution methods more broadly, great tool for teaching someone how to self-teach that’s embedded in here.
The one main thing I’d work to change more is the pitch at the start. Make clear exactly who your audience it! I’m probably not going to read this piece unless I feel targeted in some way, unless it suggests more directly to me and what I might be missing as, say, another grad student in statistics. Alternatively, it could be pitched to teachers and how they might teach the subject better. I just think a bit more clear, targeted motivation would go a long way to get more people engaged.
The interactivity at the end was phenomenal, really easy to use and the cancer example is a very intuitive one.
I like the careful explanation of this simple problem. The interactive calculator was fun to play with. My main suggestion is to fully deal with the missing plane example before generalizing it to dental hygienists, cancer, etc. Also, defer the textbook names till after you finish the missing planes example. So simply rearrange the content.
it is as you say, both intuitive and confusing. i enjoyed the read and the tools but in the end i don’t think i came away with a clearer picture of the problem solutions. i have taken notes, perhaps it will come to me later. i thought this was quite good